Дайджест | середина листопада 2022 р.

8 висновків про те, що зміниться для України через результати виборів до Конгресу США

Чи стануть результати проміжних виборів у США такими ж проміжними за впливом на американську політику щодо України? Чи навпаки — зможуть спровокувати більш серйозні наслідки і для американської підтримки, і для американської допомоги, які в контексті екзистенційної для України війни є тотожними речами?

Автор:  Альона Гетьманчук, «Нова Європа»

Defend. Resist. Repeat: Ukraine’s lessons for European defence

Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion holds vital lessons for the rest of Europe. Kyiv has placed cross-society resistance at the heart of its national defence, bringing all military and security agencies under a single command, assisted by support from the civilian population. Since 2014, the country has transformed its armed forces, upgrading logistics and communications and empowering mid-level officers; put in place a network of reservists; and taken measures to ensure Ukrainian society’s broader resilience to crises. It built this approach both on the adoption of NATO best practices and on a unique movement of volunteers who raise funds to support the war effort, merging defence and measures to increase national resilience into a single system.

This constitutes a ‘third way’ between the ‘total defence’ model of Sweden, Finland, Singapore, and Switzerland, which brings together military and civilian actors in a whole-of-society approach to security; and the strongly hierarchical model of the United States, Russia, and China, where decision-making is centralised in the political leadership. The total defence approach concentrates on defence and deterrence, while Ukraine’s approach also prioritises resilience — including a comprehensive but agile coordination of a variety of forces within and beyond the government.

Europeans should learn from this. Countries across the continent have struggled with the question of how to coordinate their security and defence agencies — particularly across civilian and military bodies — in the face of terrorist attacks and cases of malign foreign influence, but no EU member state has recently had to test their systems in war. This learning should be a two-way street, with Europe delivering arms and training to Ukraine, and in return learning from the Ukrainian experience of building a system of national resilience and defence.

Автор:  Ганна Шелест, «Українська призма» / «CEPA»

Результати проміжних виборів до Конгресу США

8 листопада 2022 року в США відбулися проміжні вибори до Конгресу (midterm elections), вибори губернаторів та до законодавчих зборів частини штатів. Прогнозована зміна більшості в обох палатах Конгресу позначиться на політичній ситуації насамперед всередині Сполучених Штатів. Зовнішня політика залишається більшою мірою прерогативою президента, а отже основні позиції зовнішньополітичного курсу адміністрації Джо Байдена не зазнають критичних змін у перспективі наступних двох років.

Автор:  Вікторія Орлик, «НІСД»

Willingness to fight for Ukraine: Lessons to the Baltic states

Although not necessarily new, indirect and asymmetric methods of warfare have become more common in the last 30 years. This is the result of the development of new technologies and the rise of what the West calls “hybrid warfare,” with the fabrics of the nation being increasingly targeted by hostile actors to achieve the ultimate objectives of warfare in the political realm. Since the threat is multilayered and targets the nation’s very existence, war and defense should go beyond the armed forces and involve the whole of society. Therefore, the whole of society is a legitimate target and should take part in defense and war efforts. Since contemporary warfare targets a nation in its totality, defense must go beyond the traditional military realm. It must include the people, information system, culture, politics, economics, and infrastructure to increase the nation’s resilience. One fundamental factor determining a country’s resilience is the relationship between the social and the political realms.

Data from the World Values Survey shows that, before the escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine, a considerable gap existed between both realms with antagonistic characteristics. Taking the above into account, a fair question to be answered is why Russia’s war against Ukraine helped consolidate the Ukrainian nation and reduced the gap between the social and political realms resulting in greater resilience? This article uses Ukraine as a case study to draw lessons about resilience in non-kinetic/hybrid warfare to the Baltic states that might be extended to Western countries.

Автори:  Вікторія Вдовиченко, «Українська призма», Яніс Берзіньш, «CSSR»

Європейська орбіта: як Україна ламає плани Росії

Матеріал присвячено місцю України на міжнародній арені. Приділено увагу формуванню її європейської ідентичності, а також обговоренням зазначеного під різними кутами зору на полях Другого «Українського центральноєвропейського форуму», що відбувся 7-8 листопада у м. Львів.

Автор:  Станіслав Желіховський, ДАУ

Memo to the G20: The fierce urgency of food security

At the Global Food Security Forum, held on the sidelines of this week’s Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Bali, Indonesia, leading officials and experts from around the world examined the complexity, fragility, and unsustainability of today’s global food system. They assessed the numerous and often complex roots of global food insecurity and the many equally complex consequences. These roots range from near-term shocks to the global food system — for example, the awful destructiveness of the war in Ukraine or unforeseen spikes in energy prices — to longer-term and more structural challenges such as the significant and possibly catastrophic impacts of climate change on food production. The consequences then ripple through global food supply chains, reflected in the increasing prices of grain, fertilizers, and foodstuffs. Price spikes in turn harm all who depend on price stability, most especially the world’s poor.

Автор:  Пітер Енґелке, «Atlantic Council»

Baltic Conflict: Russia’s Goal to Distract NATO?

The Baltics are a key strategic region where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russian military and economic interests overlap. Sabotage of the Nordstream 2 pipeline, regardless of who executed the attack, has signaled that conflict in the region is no longer left of bang. Gray zone operations are underway, and the United States, NATO, and their partners need to be ready to act in unity against an increasingly hostile Russia that is now trying to distract attention from its military shortcomings in Ukraine. In this effort, Russia’s playbook will test the limits and try to exploit the seams of the alliance. An exacting response is needed to deny Russia control and ensure full conflict is avoided. The NATO summit in Vilnius will be critical to strengthening resolve and a path forward to a combined strategy to deter further Russian aggression.

Автор:  Кортні Стайлз Гердт, «CSIS»

Israel–Lebanon Maritime Boundary Agreement: An Assessment

The Lebanon–Israel maritime boundary agreement may bring security, stability, and mutual economic benefits. The agreement can be expected to mute the security deficit to an extent, given that any military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will impact optimum extraction of the gas resources. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was critical of the agreement while out of office, may not be expected to cause a rift in Israel’s relationship with the US by abandoning it or hurting its implementation, given that it came about after intensive US-mediated diplomacy, which was no doubt hastened by the energy security implications flowing out of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine.

Автори:  Абгай Кумар Сінгх, С. Семуель С. Раджив, «MP-IDSA»

From Missions to Missiles: North Korea’s Diplomats and Sanctions-Busting

The UN sanctions regime on North Korea is one of the most extensive multilateral sanctions regimes in history. Restrictive measures have targeted WMD programmes and been used to counter revenue-raising activities that finance these programmes and keep the Kim regime in power. Since the 1970s, involvement in criminal activities and the procurement of commodities and arms has put the country’s diplomatic corps in a good position to evade sanctions.

Автор:  Деніел Солсбері, «RUSI»

An American strategy for the Indo-Pacific in an age of US-China competition

The United States is a leading Indo-Pacific power with an abiding interest in sustaining a strong alliance network and maintaining a free and open regional order that delivers peace, stability, and economic prosperity. The Indo-Pacific is a dynamic region experiencing a rewiring of the lines of security and economic cooperation, as minilateral networks continue to grow and mega trade agreements take hold.

The most significant development in the Indo-Pacific is the emergence of China as a peer competitor to the United States. Chinese actions that undermine vital U.S. interests include the use of coercion — whether in the form of gray-zone tactics, political interference, economic pressure, or military force — to weaken the U.S. alliance system in Asia, press unilateral territorial claims, and settle international disputes with disregard to international law. China also seeks to undermine democratic resilience in the region and incorporate Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China, even though its people reject the terms offered.

Автори:  Річард С. Буш, Танві Мадан, Мірея Соліс, Джонатан Стромсет, Ендрю Йео, «Brookings Institution»